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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

But the current race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still